Dunning-Kruger-Effect with Agile Methods

The introduction of new tools and methods is not just about learning new funny words or installing a tool by clicking Next → Next → Next. New methods always involve a deep cultural change that requires time and facilitation. This is the only way to achieve and maintain sustainable results. This article shows you how not to fall into the “We can do it alone!” trap.

First Steps of a Long Journey

Let me start this blog entry with a quote, attributed to Konfuzius:

By three methods we may learn wisdom:

First, by reflection, which is noblest;
Second, by imitation, which is easiest;
and third by experience, which is the bitterest.

Konfuzius

Many of my clients want to “install an agile tool” by <date>. Others attend a seminar on Agile Methods – be it a Scrum Master or Kanban class and ask a few months later “why nothing has changed?”.

In this situation I need to leave my role as a tool expert or trainer and switch to coaching mode. My job as a consultant here is to show that the change to Agile Methods means a deep cultural change for the whole company. This aspect of deep corporate relearning is often forgotten.

In his seminal article “Teaching for Learning” [1] Martin Broadwell presented a learning phase model. It was based on the latest knowledge of cognitive psychology at that time and shows that learning is much more than reading a manual or following instructions.

Broadwell differentiates four phases of learning:

  1. Unconscious Incompetence
    In this phase, we are not aware of our lack of knowledge. We feel quite edumacated.
  2. Conscious Incompetence
    By peer feedback or self-reflection we become aware of a missing competency or skill.
  3. Conscious Competence
    In this phase we have acquired theoretical and practical knowledge. We can test and apply it.
  4. Unconscious Competence
    This is the phase of true mastery of a skill.

The model appears quite intuitive and almost too simple. I assume that by now you are drawn towards the two right quadrants. Unfortunately, on the way towards competence, there is often a stumbling block: It is called Dunning-Kruger Effect!

Dunning-Kruger-Effect

20 years ago, psychologists Dunning and Kruger [2] discovered that in some contexts less knowledge leads to more self-confidence. At the same time, they also discovered that those affected are not even aware of this misjudgment. As a result, the test subjects were absolutely certain that they did not need any help. On the contrary: if others had more knowledge on a topic, this knowledge advantage was actively negated.

The quintessence of the article is often expressed as follows:

An incompetent person won’t know they’re incompetent […].

The very knowledge and skills necessary to perform a task well are the exact same qualities needed to recognize you are not good at that task.

To put it simply: “We can do it alone! Fire the coach!”
Obviously there is no incentive to begin the path through Broadwell’s four phases at all.

So what’s next?

Cultural Change…Try External Facilitation

As a consultant I am expert in my domain – that goes without saying. Just as important – and this is an often underestimated service – is my role as a neutral observer and facilitator. Free of politics and without any inclination towards “we have always/never done it that way!”

As a consultant, I take the trouble to look for the root causes behind observed symptoms and I also have the guts to communicate them openly (but in an appreciative and respectful manner). With this feedback on your tools and methods you can then initiate a new phase of growth. To close the circle to the quote from the introduction:

Decide to use the noble method.


[1] Martin M. Broadwell, Teaching For Learning (XVI.), in The Gospel Guardian, Vol 20, No 41, 1969

[2] Justin Kruger, David Dunning: Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. In: Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Band 77, Nr. 6, 1999, ISSN 1939-1315, S. 1121–1134